Holland reaches the final depending on their least inspiring performances in a competition since I can remember. Today, we will know who will follow them to the final. If Germany does so, it will be one of the most interesting games as it will serve as a rematch to that 1974 final where Germany broke the orange hearts and shadowed the quality of that total football team, led by their Johan. If Spain survived another day, that means we will experience one of the most heartbreaking finals. Imagine, the best two football nations that never won the title meet to play for the cup. One of them will end up: Failing again after being that close. Can’t they just have the cup two years each? But let’s calm down, Spain still have a mountain to climb till they start getting concerned about that.
Germany proved so far being the most consistent and balanced team. An extremely organized lineup mixing youth and experience all dedicated to the case. You barely find such level of commitment in world football these days, especially when it comes to national teams. But we are talking about the Germans here.
The selection clicked perfectly so far. There is no need to think about modifying it. Yet, there is no choice now with Müller being suspended. It’s not easy to figure out who will take his place. Trochowski –another polish serving Die Mannschaft- is a sound option. He is the most experienced compared to Kroos and Marin. But since when lack of experience was a problem for this national team? Both are extremely talented and even if it’s still early to be certain, you can expect them to become starters in euro2012. Kroos is a good choice for midfield battle while Marin is a player who can expose Spanish defensive fragility on the flanks. My vote goes for Trochowski though. It’s the semifinals and reliability should be ahead of promising.
Germany will give a special attention to Spain’s left flank where Capdevilla, Villa, and Iniesta (regardless of where his natural position is) operate. Spain is a left sided team offense wise. Leaving Lahm without sufficient support is like shooting yourself in the foot. That’s another factor Joachim Löw will take in consideration while picking Müller’s replacement.
I can’t expect that Löw will try to disturb Spain’s buildup by putting pressure on the backline, mainly Pique, Busquets and Xabi Alonso using Özil, Trochowski, Podolski, and Klose. Xavi will be forced to move deep shadowed by Khedira. That will limit Spain’s threat on a defense line led by Schweinsteiger as a holding midfielder. Then the lines retreat to create a block in front of the area, not only to protect defense but also to invite the Spaniards to move forward leaving spaces in their backlines. That’s where Germans’ counterattacks will be lethal.
Spain looked a bit disappointing if you judge based on expectations. They are more or less doing a Holland in this tournament: Winning without inspiring. But make no mistake, the team is gradually improving game after another. After the game against Switzerland, Vicente del Bosque modified the selection slightly to solve problem number one: Lack of offense presence inside the box. He counted on Torres as a striker with Villa exposing the spaces. Ramos is becoming more and more daring to open the right flank while setting offense (even though his decision making was a bit poor sometimes). Then with time the Duet Xabi-Busquets started to synchronize their functionality better. Against Paraguay, Xabi was less tempted to do a holding midfielder role than before, he was more a center midfielder. But there is still some Xabi-related tailoring needed as there is still some conflicts between his role and that’s of Xavi. Squeezed between Xabi directness and Iniesta’s impact, Xavi is still struggling to dictate his command in the midfield as he usually does.
The most notable concern for Spain is Torres form. He is yet to prove his worth as a starter in this tournament. And the question is: Will he start against Germany?
“I will pick him in a heartbeat. I am against any suggestion to bring him instead of Ibra, but that doesn’t mean I have to deny he is a great striker. Yet, the reasoning behind starting him goes beyond his individual qualities as a striker.
Spain needs to do everything possible to make Villa’s life easier for being their winning horse in this competition.
1) As I’ve been saying it since two seasons and thankfully its confirmed now, Villa plays better with a striker in front of him to create spaces than he does as a lone/main striker. Add the fact that Spain barely has any scoring midfielders who is proven with the national team, that add more responsibilities on the offense to score. Spain needs to use Villa the way he scores most and help him to be less containable. That’s not as a lone striker which will put lot of limitations on his qualities as a versatile forward who-for the record- contributed defensively on the left flank almost as much as Capdevila. When he moves to channels you will barely pick an alternative that can run into the box and cause damage. Keep Torres in, even if he doesn’t score. He creates the spaces for Villa to do so.
2) The other alternative (instead of starting a midfielder instead of Torres) is having Llorente as a starter. This is a striker I like, but how far can we consider him as a tested reliable option as a starter to worth the gamble of changing your main striker so far in a semifinal game? Starting from semifinals, changes in the selection are not recommended in general. You use the selection that picked the world cup momentum already as a group regardless of individual evaluations. You can expect the games to be close and tight which means that the last 30 minutes will decide the game. Install your additional options then. Add the fact that Torres knows Villa. He can predict what’s going to happen next and what to do to serve that. Referring to the first point, this factor gives Torres the edge as a starter.
3) If you start Torres and sub him for another player who is not a key starter, the sub will be very motivated to serve as a game changer. If you bench Torres then your plan failed he will be too desperate as a sub to prove his worth so he may not be as helpful.
4) Even when Torres disappoint as a forward, he still put an extremely appreciated pressure on opponents’ defense while retaining possession. That’s a huge plus for a team that plays possession based style.
5) If Torres scored in the semifinals he will turn to a beast in the final. That’s tempting enough to give it a try.”
Another reason is that I don’t think it is smart for Spain to mirror Germans system. Germany employ five midfielders when they lose possession. If Spain gave up on Torres for a midfielder they may have better quality in that department than Germany but the Germans will have the edge offense wise with more players capable to score than the Spaniards. Spain needs to move the game to the Germans third and need a target man like Torres in the box to pull the two center backs together toward him for Villa to slice through the space. It has to be either Torres or Llorente, and between the two I pick the more experienced.
Spain needs to count on the versatility of the players. To break through pressure it’s not enough to demand support but also to focus on continuous movement demanding the ball in the space as forward as possible. A mix of Xabi directness and Xavi command can do the trick if performed accurately. If the game turned to be another Holland-Uruguay, then Xabi long shots will help the team to create threat.
It’s extremely important that Villa attack from Lahms flank to keep him at the back, or else Capdevilla will be in trouble. Iniesta will be a key player to shuffle the team’s lines forward for being the most skillful in the midfield. His responsibilities will range from contributing in the buildup, stretching Germans defense from the flank, and keep on trying to add that piece of offense threat to his magic box while through demanding the ball in the box or launching long shots.
This game promises to enhance the level of football of this world cup, which was disappointing so far. Spain was one of the favorites for this world cup before it started. Germany deserved the favorite stamp for this match after their performance in the competition. It’s a very close battle, and hopefully it will bring the best out of the two teams.
