football test

The world cup tournament starts now. It’s the stage of serious business where a victory puts you one step away from the final. The game between sour lemon and the juicy orange is an interesting cocktail of football to taste. 

Cruyff said that he will not pay a ticket to watch THIS Brazil. They do not excite as they are always expected. Dunga responded that Cruyff never pay because FIFA send him free tickets (Never thought that Dunga has a sense of humor-or at least he tries!) . He pointed out that his grandfather was always bragging that during his time football was better. Then Dunga’s father said the same to Dunga, and now Dunga tells his children that football in his days was better and so it goes. The point is: Dunga considers his team better than the Netherlands of the seventies, so -old man- Cruyff need to stop riding his perfectionism high horse. I guess it depends on what the word “better” means. Let’s leave it there for now. The most insightful remark was that’s of Bert van Marwijk. He said that “You can’t compete for the world cup depending on luck. It doesn’t work anymore” Then he added that “The ideological radicalism and dedication toward the so-called beautiful football is the big problem of Holland”. Ouch! Never saw it coming. But I guess its more a message toward his own critics (for building a less entertaining team) than it is to defend Dunga.

Back to the game, at this stage there are no real favorites as each of the survivals has the needed quality to proceed. Still, there are some teams who are capable –systematically- to counter the strength of a specific opponent. That’s where luck serves a team to get an opponent that suits them most. In my opinion, Brazil was luckier in this one than the Netherlands. Playing against this Holland fits this Brazil more than it goes the other way.

Bert van Marwijk received lot of critic for his defensive approach. This is the game for him to prove his point. Lot of work should be done for Holland to pass the test. It starts by deciding the defensive approach to apply, will they pressure high or retreat to their own half to contain the Brazilians and generate counters? Each has its dis/advantages. 

Trying to press high meets the genetic characteristics of the players for being raised to do so. That’s a plus. Yet, it will never look like the dance of the seventies. In fact if they will ever think about this approach, they will end up meeting my old Barcetalia style, or what I call the Axe and the Anvil.

Players like Robinho, Kaka, and Fabiano are not exactly loyal for the defensive duty. That will not serve Brazil’s defense. BUT, that will become a concern for Holland because if their initial pressure failed to retain possession the three players can expose the spaces behind the Netherlands system and generate counters to the box. Add Alves and Maicon pace to the mix and the outcome is trouble. In that sense, the positional discipline of Van Bommel, de Jong, Kuyt, and Van der Wiel while retaining possession will be crucial for Holland depending on the movement of Robben, Van Persie, and Sneijder who will be leading the pressing adventure. Mathijsen, Heitinga, and Van Bronckhorst must be fully dedicated to create defensive depth.

If Van Persie succeeded to dance between the defenders depending on the ball circulation (RB/RCB-RCB/LCB-LCB/LB), and the rest of the team had enough dynamics to reposition and press, they will have a decent chance to complicate Brazil’s day. But it will not be easy as it requires the highest level of synchronized movement.

As a demonstration, with the ball being on the left (for Brazil), Van Persie needs to dance between Bastos and Juan assisted by Robben while Van der Wiel checks Robinho, Sneijder terminating the closest holding midfielder who may serve as an outlet, Kuyt monitoring Maicon/second holding midfielder movement and Van Bommel covers Alves, with de Jong checking Kaka leaving Mathijsen, Heitinga, and Van Bronckhorst to balance the depth and spaces in the back. Lucio’s movement can change the arrangement. Fullbacks overlapping runs will put huge demands as well. The change of play requires respective repositioning movement. If there is any national team that can achieve that, it’s no doubt the oranges. Still it needs lot of daring to go for it. I will be surprised if van Marwijk goes that far. Especially that it requires a pre-tournament preparations Rinus Michels's style. Marwijk for all his good is not a Michels. Duh! No one is.

Setting in the back and counting on counters, applying a pure Italian-ic zonal marking to face Maicon and co runs and interplays will be suicidal as well. Its not even Holland-compatible. I dont want to think about that option, nor to give it more time to represent itself.

A more realistic approach will be the less adventurous one. When Holland loses possession, they retreat gradually to their own half. The trick here is to try to keep the whole Brazilian back line busy depending on Robben, Van Persie, and Sneijders’ movement. If it clicked, with Kuyt containing Alves, Holland’s task to defend against Brazil will be much easier. They will use Brazil’s dependency on Fabiano inside the area against them. Mathijsen and Heitinga can contain him if they will be fully focused on that. With Bastos being unable to contribute offensively, and Maicon contribution being limited, Kaka and Robinho will not find enough spaces to operate or slice through, nor there will be sufficient options in the box to fax the ball to. The system will not provide enough solutions and the team will count on a moment of individual inspiration, something Holland can claim they have as well. That will make it even.

While setting offense, Holland may not exactly catch Brazil by surprise through generating counters. Dunga will always have at least four men to defend at any time. Yet, a long pass to the space behind the defenders can expose the lack of pace of Lucio, Juan, and Gilberto. Robben and especially Van Persie can cause the damage if Holland midfield released the ball a bit faster than they did already in the world cup.

When the Brazilians settle in the area, Holland offense will need to be a bit more creative to score. If Van Persie tries to be a Drogba, he will be terminated once and for all and the whole offense will turn fruitless. Van Persie needs to perform a Messi-like role in the world cup but from an advanced line, creating spaces for his teammates to expose. With him and Robben stretching Brazil on the left Kuyt can make a diagonal run to the box and receive Sneijder’s message. Moving to the other flank (Holland's left) with Van der Wiel making his runs on the right will create lot of options in the middle for Robben, Sneijder, Kuyt and even Van Bommel. Less predicted Van Persie means less predicted Holland, and vice versa.

I put more time on Holland because Brazil is a team that will play more or less the game they demonstrated so far in the world cup. Yet, it will be a bit too risky to press high against Holland. That’s their game and they are more used to it than the Samba knights. Besides, I think the lack of pace at the back make it risky to press high leaving spaces in the Brazilian half for Robben and Van Persie to expose. The back line will keep being anxious and spontaneously positioning deeper than the high press game demands. That may stretch the lines against a team that is so good moving between the lines.

An extremely mouthwatering battle. The tempo may not be as fast as we like to see, but if things turned crazy in the second half, you may not be able to catch your breath.