football test

World cup 1986, I remember the final between Germany and Argentina. A German team carrying high expectations on their shoulders against an ordinary Argentina carried on the shoulders of one freakily skillful midget. I remember Maradona in that game being the destabilizer who helped his teammates to be the neutralizers. Well, Maradona will be there today trying to provide more of the same linking Messi to a joystick he controls from the bench.

But make no mistake; defense will win this game, not offense. Both teams have the magic box required to win the battle. The homework is to find the right recipe to nullify the opponent’s offense. 

The German team is not subject to intense analysis. They were the most convincing side in the tournament so far, ticking all the boxes for a title contender. Not a favorite when the tournament kicked off. Decent defense. Youth and Experience perfectly mixed. Width. Aggression. Offense Presence in the box. No dependency on a specific player but more a group of quality players feeding a system of play. All seems to be well planned by Joachim Loew. The rest is for the football gods to plan. But can Maradona hunt them down today?

Maradona demanded apologies for all those who doubted his team quality. I think it’s still too early to brag. Put me on the record, I am one of the doubters. And so far I didn’t see anything interesting enough to apologies. He can win me over if he won this one. But how?

Not sure what he is planning as he has been the most unpredictable coach so far in this tournament (a good thing may be). I will consider it a good start to pick the following selection:

Maradona will find it more tempting to use Otamendi over Gutierrez for being more committed defensively. But that will not actually add a lot defensively. Having Burdisso (notice that I put him as a RCB not a LCB as he played so far), Demishelis, and Heinze as three center backs are more than enough. Add to that the fact that Germany’s left fullback is not as offense oriented as Lahm on the right. That means the two threats on Argentina right flank will come either from Podolski who cuts inside more than he hug the lines, and Klose moving to channels. Both cases are containable by the defense trio assisted by the tracking back of Tevez and co. Especially with Di Maria checking Muller on the opposite flank. Ozil is a case on his own. He can cause threat on the left, right, and center. He attacks spaces. That’s why having Bolatti in the selection will be crucial to man mark him so he doesn’t distract others from doing their original defensive roles. Mascherano will be the man supporting any weak department creating cover and depth. If the two players Ozil and Bolatti cancel each other, Maradona will be the one smiling at the end of the day.

Maradona also need to avoid using a containable offense setup. So far, Messi was the player serving behind Tevez and especially Higuain. If that will be the case against Germany, Messi may have a tough day against Khedira and Schweinsteiger. I say flip the triangle. Play Messi as a “9” on Friedrich and Mertesacker and Let Tevez and Higuain get advantage of the chaos produced by this twist. 

Tevez work rate will be a bless if used behind Messi. Opening to the left he can help Di Maria keeping Lahm where he hates: Playing defense. Moving to the other flank he can assist Gutierrez to stretch the Germans defense. From the center he can put huge pressure on Khedira and Schweinsteiger especially while retaining possession. All that will serve as an advantage for Messi and Higuain who will be completely dedicated to abuse spaces created to generate scoring opportunities. I won’t complain if Milito plays the Higuain role though. In that case he can play the destructive role between the two center backs. But it’s more unlikely than the whole scenario mentioned already. 

Or maybe, Maradona will have more magic than we think…

The most complicated challenge for any coach is to help an average team to shine on a world class level. Maradona achieved the most unattainable task: leading a world class team to perform as an average bunch of amateurs. Argentina will be one of the most interesting teams to watch. At least they have the most interesting coach.

I will not dive deep in his selection choices. I believe the coaches should be judged based on their tactical systems first before evaluating the cards selected to serve such systems. But first let’s point out three major challenges Maradona had to deal with:

1) Lack of quality fullbacks to count on.

2) Creating a Juan Román Riquelme free selection.

3) Lack of natural target men/Poacher s to compliment the skillful forwards and attacking midfielders in the team.

Maradona tackled these challenges selecting this lineup:

1) In the presence of one quality wingback (and sometimes even by customizing a wing) who lack defensive quality, Coaches may use him as a fullback and slot a center back on the opposite flank to serve as a fullback who serves as a third center back when the wingback push forward.

2) In the presence of two quality wingbacks, coaches either use them both with two holding midfielders with one of them moving deep to play as a third center back or they reshape the tactics to something similar to 3-5-2 with the wingbacks playing in front of three center backs with a holding midfielder I between.

3) Some more daring coaches (especially if the squad lack quality wings), may structure a 3-4-3/3-3-3-1, etc… with the wingbacks serving as wings.

Regardless of any critical evaluation for each option, Maradona decided to take a different approach selecting two center backs to serve as fullbacks (Though Heinze played as a fullback before, but he serves more as a left flanked Center back for Argentina). It may sound like a reasonable idea. It secures the team defensively and offers the offense the chance to focus on what they can do best. Yet, the defects of this option are more than the advantages:

1) During the qualification games –Maradona era- one of the main problems of the team was the crack between the offense and the defense units. There was a huge space between the lines. The current option will only make things worse during offense buildup.

2) This structure fits more the underdogs, not the favorites or the competitive teams. The lack of overlapping runs from the fullbacks will terminate the offense options on the flanks. Most of the teams –especially in the group stages- will play two holding midfielders in front of four defenders. A fullback with a holding midfielder can terminate any threat Argentina can generate on any flank as long as none of the fullbacks contribute offense wise. 

3) Unlike the common observation, this option will not serve the team defensively. Having only Mascherano in front of static four will create enough space in the midfield for the opponents to generate fast counters to the Argentineans’ defensive third. Keeping in mind the lack of pace and positioning sense of the defense it is always better to put more pressure on the opponents higher on the field rather than tracking them back. A fullback who contributes in offense can also serve a better defensive task for being closer to the lost ball and capable of either putting early pressure on the ball holder as an initial attempt to win back the ball or he can close spaces in the midfield while retreating to his position. We can expect Demichelis to move forward to assist Mascherano while the team in possession, but neither him nor the two center backs he leaves behind has enough qualities to perfect this option without causing more chaos. 

Creating a Juan Román Riquelme free selection: I like the player, but I also support the idea of keeping him outside the squad. His poor work rate and lack of defense contribution and attitude is infectious. You can’t create a group that fight and work as a unit with Riquelme being involved in the selection. But there is a need to create the right offense dynamics to cover the absence of such a quality player. The first wrong decision was selecting Veron, especially for the current system applied. He performs well, but while his defensive contribution is not much better than that’s of Riquelme, he plays much deeper in a selection that lacks fullback offense contribution and a poacher who can benefit from the offense setup generated from the flanks. From the current squad (and I will not comment on the players who are not selected for the World cup), Javier Pastore is a better option there.

Lack of natural target men/Poacher: Higuain is not the answer. Period. Milito, may be. Or even Tevez, the bull. Not Higuain. He is a quality player but he can’t offer any significant addition to the mix around him. See it this way: the main quality of Higuain is 1) creating space when he opens to the flanks. 2) Slicing through the opponent defense demanding the ball in the space. Yet, 1) with the lack of immense offense on the flanks where the opponent fullbacks have only one player to deal with (the wing), why will the opponents center backs move to support? Especially with the presence of holding midfielders and flanked midfielders. 2) Where will the spaces come from with the lack of positional interchanges? No fullbacks involved, wings dealing with their own issues and if they cut inside the selection gets too narrow unless if Messi open to the flank(which may not serve them). A deep laying playmaker that can barely catch any defense with surprise… The outcome will be inevitable: Messi isolation.

In fact the team counts completely on Messi’s skills for the offense to click. That’s the only hope they can bet on regardless of the great individuals they have. Something you can build castles of hopes it will happen if we were in the 1986 football era. Nowadays, it’s not as easy as Messi’s talent may inspire.