football test

This group is an interesting one for many reasons. Obviously it’s the group of the hosting country. But moreover, it’s the group where football styles will create some of the most exciting battles in the group stages. That’s the magic of the world cup. First match is always the most important one as it sets the momentum for the teams and decides how likely they will qualify to the knockout stages. It will serve as an exhibition for each national team to show the quality it brings to this tournament. 

Group Level: B

Competition level: A

Certain qualifier: None

Game One: South Africa – Mexico

South Africa –General view:

The hosts made a U-turn since they hired Carlos Alberto Parreira to coach the Bafana Bafana. Since then they tasted no defeats in their last 12 friendly games. One of the big surprises was the omission of Benni McCarthy from the selection. But with Katlego Mphela setting their world alight, that decision is understandable. The main threat though will be the lack of experience on big stages, added to the dilemmas they may have to structure their defense properly. I still believe Benni could have helped as a sub when a game changer is needed. I also think Parreira should have tested some more Mokoena-free defense lines during the friendly games (Ex: using Nasief Morris). But the Brazilian coach knows his squad most.

Predicted selection (4-2-3-1):

Khune, Gaxa, Mokoena, Khumalo, Masilela, Letsholonyane, Dikgacoi, Pienaar, Modise, Tshabalala , Mphela

South Africa is a team that can hold on possession, but they usually fail to generate enough scoring opportunities out of it. One of the main reasons is their inability to stretch their opponent defense with an extremely narrow offense dynamics they have. Masilela is a good left fullback to push forward, yet that may create some defense headache, especially when Mokoena is in a bad day and the holding midfielder duets lacking the tactical discipline required making the trick tick. South Africa will count on a decent keeper, shaky defense, compact midfield and a Mphela –Killer- to score their goals.

There are lots of bets that the Bafana Bafana will be the first host to be knocked out from the group stage in a world cup. Yet, they have the resources to prove their doubters wrong.

Mexico –General view:

I remember the national team of the early nineties. They were the masters of exhibition style of short passes and triangles. A joy to watch, no doubt. Since then, I always expect more of the same from the Mexicans but I can’t claim my expectations were met since then. 

Aguirre brought back the team to the basics after Eriksson’s Era. They play a 3-4-3 system that goes along with lot of the tactics applied domestically. The key player for this system to click is Marquez who actually serve more as a holding midfielder than a libero for the national team, setting in front of Rodríguez and Osorio and covering Salcido and Aguilar movement forward. Giovani dos Santos will most likely continue being a better asset for his national team than he is for his –any other team. Vela is that other crack complementing Franco, while Hernández may end up being one of the tournament great surprises.

Predicted selection (3-4-3):

Oscar Pérez, Carlos Salcido, ‘Maza’ Rodríguez, Paul Aguilar, Ricardo Osorio, Gerardo Torrado, Rafa Márquez, Efraín Juárez, Carlos Vela, Giovani dos Santos, Franco.

The quality of the system depends on how you see it. They collapsed against Netherlands. They outshined England, especially in the first half, and then defeated Italy. I believe they will enjoy the normal advantages of the 3-4-3 and suffer from its predicted defects depending on the team they face. Usually the 3-4-3 is defensively fragile on the flanks, but –if applied with excellence- the team can cover that by applying a systematic shuffling for the defense trio and the far wingback to create lateral cover. I can talk forever about it being a fan of systems based on 3 defenders (3-4-3, 3-5-2).

I believe in this team chances to qualify. I predict their game against Uruguay to be the most tricky one for them, tactically. But first thing first: The opening game against South Africa.

Before the game kickoff, I have to say that Mexico have the edge over South Africa, especially tactically. In fact the typical system applied by South Africa serves Mexico most. South Africa counts on a lone striker- Mphela. If Rodríguez and Osorio succeeded to contain him, Marquez will end up serving as a fifth player operating in the midfield third which will cancel South Africa numerical superiority in that department (five midfielders in 4-2-3-1). With Salcido, Aguilar, Dos Santos and Vela operating on the flanks and cutting inside simultaneously depending on the change of play they may force the flanked midfielders of South Africa to retreat and cover their fullbacks with Letsholonyane and Dikgacoi being checked and kept busy by Torrado and Juárez. That will put the African team in a reaction position rather than dictating his game. No doubt South Africa can counter that by applying a similar dynamic asking Dikgacoi to cover the center backs and the fullbacks to push forward. Yet, I doubt that the Bafana Bafana players will have the tactical discipline and awareness to apply such a complicated system that they are not used to, unlike Mexico. And If Aguirre ended up starting Hernández upfront for this game to get advantage of South Africa’s slow defense, that may prove being too mobile for Mokoena and Khumalo to contain.

South Africa’s friendly games record boosted the team moral, but it may play a negative role against them in this game. They can win this one if they felt they are underdogs. If they closed defense and generated counters on the flanks. But if I will have to make a bet, I will put my money on the visitors.

Yet 90,000 vuvuzelas supporting the Bafana Bafana at Soccer City Stadium in Johannesburg may prove too much for the Mexicans to defeat.