football test

Atletico Madrid is one of the most interesting teams in the Liga. It is the club where hope and disappointment engages to keep the passionate “Indios” swinging on the fine line of anticipations. Atletico fans have the spirit of gamblers where the temptation of betting is a mix of estimating a good return, and the “pleasure” of the brutal pain of frustration. They are even more addicted to offer none questionable support to their team, regardless of the odds for their bet to bring a satisfying return.

In Spain, there is always a clash between those who believe in the Two poles of the Liga (Real Madrid and Barcelona), neglecting the rest, and those who add more teams to the basket of big teams in Spain. Aside of Athletic Bilbao, it’s the rise and fall of Atletico Madrid that initiates such kind of debates. The same as teams like Valencia, Sevilla, and Villarreal target the third place spot as a first step to hack the two big teams’ dominance. Deportivo made an attempt once as well. But there is no doubt that Atletico Madrid is one of the few clubs in Spain that can keep being the word of mouth regardless of their league position. Even relegating to the second division failed to bury the prestigious image of the club.

They had their Jesús Gil who makes Barcelona’s Gaspart looks like a genius. Their team entered the dark tunnel permanently the moment they decided to shut down their youth academy (1992), sending Raul to Real Madrid, and building the squad based on expensive signings. Interestingly, Barcelona recovered their form and succeeded when they did exactly the opposite, giving up on Gaspart and putting more focus on the youth academy with selective signings to complete the squad.

This season, Atletico Madrid were…Atletico Madrid. Same old story, a quality squad on papers yet the underperforming spell is still there. You can barely understand how a team like Atletico struggle. It’s easy to say that they have defense problems, but I think the problem is more embedded chronically than the need of a Franco Baresi leading their backline to titles. They remind me of Inter Milan in Italy where for a long period of time they had the best squads ever season in season out but still did the impossible which was not winning a title, but losing it. They need the “it” to break through that destructive cycle of doubts. That’s when they will start the season aiming to achieve instead of being determinant not to disappoint, again. There is a big difference between the two approaches. 

But make no mistake, the game between Atletico and Barcelona is a standalone battle. It has nothing to do with the teams’ performance in the league. Atletico in this game will count first on the quality offence they have (well, we know they can’t count on a solid defense). And they will also try to get advantage of Barcelona defense problems. If they want to have a chance to win this game, they need to watch Barcelona game against Villarreal. The submarine showed the way. Atletico will not be able to contain Barcelona offense through parking the bus. But they have quality players on the flanks and two forwards with extremely dangerous work rate and aggression to disturb Barcelona buildup and possession flow. If they can force the midfield deeper toward the defense to assist moving the ball out of Barcelona defense third, and forced the forwards to move deep toward the midfield, then they can dictate the ball tempo, and control the match destiny.

Recently, I started a different style of Previews to avoid repetition. We all know Barcelona and the way they play. We can’t expect new inventions for every game. Yet, the absences of key players will no doubt make this game an interesting case study to keep an eye on and anticipate.

The selection may go one of the following ways:

1) Valdes, Maxwell, Puyol, Milito, Keita, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta, Messi, Ibra, Henry.

2) Valdes, youth, Puyol, Milito, Maxwell, Busquets, Keita, Xavi, Messi, Ibra, Iniesta,

The first assumption counts on experience defensively, and goal scoring abilities offense wise. The positives of this assumption are:

a) Having a well tested players in defense,

b) Keeping the right flank activated offense wise. Maxwell proved against Getafe that he can cover Alves absence.

c) Having three solid players in the back (Puyol, Milito, Keita) to secure the area and move the ball forward to hand the buildup responsibilities to the midfield.

d) Busquets, Xavi, and Iniesta assisted by Messi can collaborate to increase ball possession which is a defensive need and a necessity for offense.

e) Having both Ibra and Henry will create more spaces in Atletico defense and will make the team able to match physically the Atleti defenders and beat them technically. 

The weakness of this assumption is using many players in defense out of position. Can Keita fulfill the expectations on the left back? Is Maxwell as good as he showed against Getafe on the right back or it was just one exception? What about Henry form? He adds more directness to the team when he starts which has its positive effect but at the same time it may lead to losing more balls. That’s bad. The possession on the ball is the make or breaks in this game. 

What’s good about the second assumption is:

a) Having three of the four positions in the back covered by reliable players serving their natural roles.

b) Having Busquets and Keita in the midfield will help terminating Atletico offense in the midfield before it approaches our defense third.

c) Busquets and Keita behind Xavi, Iniesta, Messi, and Ibra should guarantee the dominance in the midfield. That’s the most important factor in this game. Goals will come sooner or later.

d) Giving a youth a chance in such a big game. That’s always good news.

The weakness is obviously finding who will play in that vacant position in defense. The most important factor is not the Physical nor the technical qualities of the options available, but the mental strength of each. Atletico will no doubt try to abuse that situation trying to put early pressure on the fragile flank. How far can the selected player handle the pressure –mentally- is the question. Besides, This selection may lead Messi to operate more on the flank than cutting inside (with the absence of Alves), that’s not going to help him to put a great performance, unless if Ibra moved to channels more often so that Messi can penetrate to the box.

Will Pep select the first option or the second is yet to be seen. The results of the poll about the subject showed the uncertainty. It depends on the youth he is coaching and the feeling he gets that will lead him to make the decision, almost in the last minute.

Yet, it’s the midfield and offense form that will make the defenders life easy or complicated. If Maxwell can pull Atletico wing to serve defense rather than the other way around, if the midfield controlled possession as expected and offense finished the early chances they may get, then Atletico will enter the status of doubt. If Atletico succeeded to score an early goal, then we will have a high mountain to climb. The first fifteen minutes may prove vital.

Will it be a scoring battle game as usual? Its for Messi knights and Aguero warriors to tell.